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Population/Jobs Model

Demographic and Employment Forecast Model (DEFM)

To help the NJTPA understand where people and businesses would like to locate in the future and how those choices will impact the transportation system, the agency developed a model that incorporates factors that influence those choices. The Demographic and Employment Forecast Model (DEFM) is a Microsoft Excel-based model created in 2004 and enhanced in 2011 to aid NJTPA forecasting efforts.

The DEFM uses regional and county level forecasts of employment, population and households produced from a regional econometric modeling effort and allocates these forecasts to a localized Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. It also aggregates the TAZ level information to the municipal level.

The DEFM uses data elements that influence location behavior to perform this allocation analysis including:

  • current land use data (residential, commercial, industrial and vacant land)

  • composite zoning estimates for density

  • highway and transit accessibility

  • historical growth

  • known project developments

The forecasts produced by the DEFM form the basis of the final set of forecasts produced by NJTPA. The forecasts are reviewed by the NJTPA and partner agencies and adjustments are made to incorporate local knowledge to produce NJTPA’s final forecasts.

 

Forecast Documentation

Updated NJTPA Demographic and Employment Forecasting (DEFM) User Guide (06/2011) PDF 3.1 MB

For further information, contact Bob Diogo at (973) 639-8409 or diogo@njtpa.org